Income Inequality, Unemployment, and Urbanization: Key Determinants of The Crime Index in ASEAN
Keywords:
Socio-Economic Factors, Crime Index, ASEAN Countries, Panel ARDL ModelAbstract
This comprehensive study evaluates the impact of socio-economic factors—specifically income inequality, unemployment, and urbanization—on crime index across five ASEAN countries (Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, and Singapore) utilizing annual panel data from 2012 to 2022. The analysis was conducted through the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to ascertain both the long-term and short-term effects of these variables on the crime index. The findings reveal diverse impacts across the countries studied. In the long term, both income inequality and urbanization showed a positive and significant relationship with the crime index, suggesting that increases in these factors are likely to elevate crime rates. Conversely, unemployment did not demonstrate a significant long-term effect on crime. In the short term, income inequality’s impact on crime was positive but not significant, while unemployment exhibited a negative and significant effect in countries like Indonesia and Malaysia, suggesting that higher unemployment may actually reduce crime rates in these contexts. Urbanization showed no significant short-term impact on the crime index across the studied nations. The study also highlights the contextual variability of these relationships, influenced by local socio-economic conditions and policy frameworks. For instance, while income inequality and urbanization are significant drivers of crime in some countries, their impact is negligible in others, where social policies or economic structures may mitigate these effects. These results underscore the necessity of tailored policy interventions that consider local socio-economic dynamics and structural factors. Effective crime prevention strategies must adapt to the diverse conditions within ASEAN countries, reflecting the complex interplay between socio-economic factors and crime. This study contributes to the understanding of how socio-economic disparities and urban development correlate with crime rates, providing insights for policymakers to formulate nuanced and effective strategies for crime reduction in various socio-economic contexts
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